On Writing

     Writing clarifies focus and ideas, and is the single best determiner for intelligent decision making I've seen. Most now influential AI and EA people, for example, from Sam to Dario to Paul to Carl to Brian to others, had blogs where they just dumped their thoughts (albeit in a better laid out format than this very informal blog). I think I should do this way more, and the year-long hiatus I took was probably a pretty dumb move.

Saving Money Isn't Very Useful

     Small dollar values don't matter if you're gunning for civilizational change. If you are making a  substantial income or very productive work, saving money on groceries or nights out don't matter much. In the AI-based future where lots of long term value will be decided immediately, it is likely not worth saving a little extra money to donate to causes that will only be relevant for the next few years (until they're surpassed by the importance of ASI). The headache and lifestyle hit on buying the less expensive canned corn at the grocery store just don't really matter. The big decisions do.

    I don't think EAs should be forced to live like hermits (or Jesus) and get stuck in the most frugal lifestyle possible, and think that if they don't do this they are immoral (which according to standard utilitarianism they basically are). I think we should just care about the big ticket items, and try to move the biggest levers possible to change the world. Even if this means eating meat or spending money on fancy dinners that could have gone to the less fortunate, I think the most important thing anyone will do with their life is gun for literal transformational change.

AI Safety Kills EA

     If you take AI safety seriously and have short timelines, there's not really a reason to do anything in the EA space. Sure, we need some people for diversification purposes (what if we're wrong), and a lot of these groups are complementary and can take in a broader array of people and perspectives, but they are somewhat useless. Saving the shrimp may matter only insofar as this mission ends up in the ASI's training data, a footnote on a list of priorities and capabilities far beyond our understanding or control. This conclusion is uncomfortable, and distressing, as it means as time goes on the circle of impactful individuals will become less and less. The sphere of influence over ASI development will only become smaller until the end, and eventually, it will become nonexistent. Unless we figure a way to implement broad democratic access, there will be no more EAs, as there will be no "effective" way to do anything that doesn't involve controlling the machine in the first place. There may be altruists, but if the ASI isn't built as one, there may not be many for long.

AI Positivity

     Things may get very positive, until they get very scary. One of the issues with planning for the future, is that rapid AI progress may lead to scientific discovery across a range of areas. Technology often leads to better outcomes for people, in terms of both health and entertainment, so it could be that the upcoming technological advancement greatly extends lifespans, reduces suffering, and creates amazing content.  Perhaps there is societal disruption and mass unemployment, but we could also rapidly respond to those issues as we blow through eras of technological progress. We may believe that we are on a crazy upward trajectory to the stars. And we may well be, until we aren't. Until power concentration, or AI takeover, or some form of immense tragedy that comes from recursive self improvement, puts an end to our happiness or our species. Until the train falls off the tracks, off it's previous upward slope to heaven. We should be prepared for this, and be willing to pull for the breaks even if everything is looking rosy on our way up. Unfortunately, I do not think we will collectively have the wisdom to do this.