I find the EA framework (scale, neglecteness, tractability), perhaps the single most powerful way to think about the world. It's too early to tell, but actually being able to discern well with these criteria is so incredible useful that it probably has to lead to fame and fortune. I hope to avoid both (especially the former), but many EAs who are smart and diligent seem pretty able to build an immense amount of one or both. Maybe it's just the case that backing AI is backing the winning horse, but it's hard to believe in market efficiency once you see the world play out so closely to some people's (Christiano's) predictions.
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